L7 

Wars and Conflicts in the 21st Century

This note provides an overview of wars and conflicts in the 21st century, examining their global landscape, changing nature, and the impact on state power and civilians.

I. Wars and Conflicts Today: A Global Overview

While the war in Ukraine serves as a striking example of contemporary armed violence, it does not represent the majority of conflicts. Conflicts are diverse in their nature, actors involved, and intensity levels.

A. Conflict Typologies and Intensity Levels

• Types of Conflicts:

  • Interstate conflicts: Between states.

  • Intrastate conflicts: Within a single state, often involving government forces against non-state actors.

  • Extrastate conflicts: Between a state and a non-state group outside its territory.

  • Internationalized conflicts: Intrastate conflicts with external intervention.

• Intensity Levels (Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research):

  1. Disputes

  2. Non-violent crises

  3. Violent crises

  4. Limited wars

  5. Wars

• Intensity Levels (SIPRI):

  1. Low-intensity conflicts: 25 to 999 conflict-related fatalities.

  2. High-intensity armed conflicts: 1,000 to 9,999 conflict-related fatalities.

  3. Major armed conflicts: 10,000 or more conflict-related fatalities.

B. Prevalence of Intrastate vs. Interstate Conflicts

• Most conflicts today are intrastate conflicts; interstate conflicts have become rare.

• In the 2010s, none of the 15 deadliest armed conflicts were interstate wars, leading some to question if war was becoming "obsolete."

• However, 2021-2023 were among the four deadliest years since 1989 (excluding 1994, due to the Rwandan genocide).

• In 2024, out of 49 states experiencing armed conflict, only three were officially recorded as interstate: Russia-Ukraine, India-Pakistan, and Israel-Iran. The Israel-Hamas conflict holds a special status in SIPRI's typology.

• There has been a "return of large-scale conventional interstate warfare in Europe and cross-border state-led military aggression in the Middle East."

• Europe became the region with the highest number of deaths linked to armed conflict in 2024.

C. Geography of Current Conflicts and Regional Perspectives (2024 Data)

Fatality figures cover battles, explosions, remote violence, protests, riots, strategic developments, and violence against civilians. All conflict-related fatalities in a region are included, regardless of whether countries were classified as being in armed conflict.

• Total conflict-related fatalities worldwide increased significantly to 239,153 in 2024.

• Major Armed Conflicts (more than 10,000 deaths in 2024):

  • Russia-Ukraine war

  • Israel-Hamas conflict

  • Myanmar civil war

  • Sudan civil war

  • Subnational armed conflict in Ethiopia

• Regional Overview:

  • Europe: The region with the highest number of conflict-related fatalities in 2024 (77,771), largely due to the Russia-Ukraine war. It has 2 armed conflicts.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa: Highest number of armed conflicts in 2024 (21 conflicts) and the second-highest fatalities (67,215).

  • Americas: 10 armed conflicts, with fatalities primarily from organized crime and anti-crime operations (e.g., Mexico, Brazil), rather than political conflict. Colombia has seen a decrease in violence since the peace agreement with FARC.

  • Asia and Oceania: 8 armed conflicts. The deadliest conflict in 2024 was the civil war in Myanmar, accounting for three-quarters of the region's conflict-related deaths.

  • Middle East and North Africa: 8 armed conflicts. Includes the Israel-Hamas conflict (with its wider regional implications), and the civil war in Yemen.

• Armed Groups: 450 armed groups were counted in 2024, with the majority in Africa (195).

D. Key Conflicts and Their Characteristics

• Russia-Ukraine War:

  • Began in 2014 with separatist movements and the annexation of Crimea, intensifying in Donbas.

  • Full-scale invasion ("special operation") by Russia started in February 2022.

  • Estimates: 148,000 deaths (Feb 2022 - end 2024); front line of nearly 1,000 km.

  • Significant aid provided by the US and Europe to Ukraine.

• Israel-Hamas Conflict:

  • War launched by Israel in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attacks.

  • Part of a longer historical trajectory.

  • Includes Israeli attacks against Iran and its proxies (Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen).

  • High civilian casualty count in Gaza (e.g., 64,000 Palestinians killed by August 2025 according to the UN).

• Sudan Civil War:

  • Conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (General Abdel Fattah Burhan) and the Rapid Support Forces (Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo "Hemedti").

• Democratic Republic of Congo:

  • Deeply affected by conflict, especially in its eastern provinces, with around 100 armed groups operating (e.g., March 23 Movement - M23).

• Sahel Region:

  • Considered the "epicentre of terrorism" (51% of all terrorism deaths in 2024, per 2025 Global Terrorism Index).

• Myanmar Civil War:

  • Deadliest conflict in Asia and Oceania in 2024.

  • Follows a 2021 military coup; by 2024, resistance forces controlled significant parts of the territory.

II. Exploring the Changing Nature of Warfare

The decline of interstate wars does not mean states rely less on military power, but rather that the nature and costs of warfare have shifted.

A. War and State Power

• States are increasingly hesitant to engage in interstate wars due to high economic, human, and political costs.

• "Impuissance de la puissance" (powerlessness of power): Bertrand Badie's concept describing the inability of the strongest states to impose their will through hard power alone (e.g., US intervention in Iraq).

• Nonetheless, military power remains central for great powers, with a "return to military power" observed in the 2010s.

• Russia, for example, has shown a willingness to pay a huge price to reassert its power through war.

• The fragility or collapse of certain states has fueled intrastate armed conflicts.

• According to Charillon, new wars primarily stem from the failure of weak states, not clashes between powerful ones.

• External interventions in "rogue states" in the 21st century have sometimes destroyed state structures and fueled lasting conflicts (e.g., 2003 US intervention in Iraq leading to the rise of ISIS, 2011 Western intervention in Libya).

B. Civilians at the Heart of Conflicts

• The traditional distinctions between soldiers and civilians, and between front lines and civilian areas, are blurred in intrastate conflicts.

• States often violate humanitarian and international law.

• Intrastate conflicts are particularly deadly for civilians.

• Example: In 2023, nearly 9,000 children were recruited and used as soldiers.

• Forced Displacement: According to UNHCR, 108 million people are currently forcibly displaced globally, including refugees, asylum-seekers, internally displaced people, and Palestine refugees.

C. New Ways of Conducting War: Remote Warfare and New Technologies

• SIPRI notes a growing reliance on remote and indiscriminate weapons and tactics with harmful consequences for civilians (e.g., use of drones/Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles - UAVs).

• Increased sophistication of military methods and reliance on technologies from the digital and information revolutions.

• Example: Use of AI software like "Lavender" for targeting in conflicts, guiding artillery and air force with potentially little human oversight, leading to concerns about permissive policies for casualties.

• Desire of armies to minimize military casualties and the privatization of war (e.g., Wagner Group/Africa Corps for Russia, private contractors for the US in Iraq).

Key Takeaways

• The 21st century conflict landscape is dominated by intrastate conflicts, though large-scale interstate wars have made a limited return, notably in Europe.

• Civilian populations bear the brunt of modern conflicts, with high casualty rates and massive displacement.

• Technological advancements, including AI and drones, are fundamentally changing how wars are fought, raising ethical concerns about targeting and human oversight.

• The erosion of state structures due to internal fragility and external interventions contributes significantly to prolonged conflicts.