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The United States: A Contested Leading World Power?

The United States' position as the leading global power is currently facing significant challenges and its dominance in various spheres is increasingly being questioned.

I. Strengths and Weaknesses of the World's Leading Power

A. The Different Tools of American Power

The U.S. employs a comprehensive range of tools to project its power globally, often categorized using typologies like DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economy), DIMEFIL (adding Finance, Intelligence, and Law Enforcement), or MIDFIELD (Military, Information, Diplomacy, Financial, Intelligence, Economy, Law, and Development). It's crucial to understand that these instruments are not automatically associated with a single form of power.

1. Diplomacy

   • The U.S. possesses the world's largest diplomatic network with 275 diplomatic missions abroad, comprising 171 embassies and 88 consulates.

   • It holds a permanent seat on the U.N. Security Council and is a key player in multilateral institutions established after World War II.

   • Diplomatic engagement received approximately $90 billion in funding in 2023.

2. Public Diplomacy and Cultural/Scientific Influence

   • Unlike traditional state-to-state diplomacy, public diplomacy targets foreign publics and public opinion. Examples include the Fulbright Program and the Young Leaders Program.

   • U.S. civil society institutions, such as major universities, entertainment companies, and tech giants, also contribute significantly to this influence.

3. Intelligence

   • The U.S. intelligence community consists of 18 separate organizations, including the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA, with a budget exceeding $90 billion in 2021-2022.

4. Military Capabilities

   • The U.S. military budget is around $800 billion, representing approximately 40% of global military expenditures, and it employs 1.4 million active-duty personnel.

   • It is a major nuclear power, possessing the second-largest nuclear arsenal after Russia (about 3,700 warheads).

   • Key military assets include a vast network of military bases, a world-leading navy, and forces deployed globally (Europe, Indo-Pacific, Persian Gulf).

   • The U.S. leads numerous alliances and partnerships, such as NATO.

   • The American "military-industrial complex" describes the interconnected network of defense industries, armed forces, and government agencies.

5. Economy

   • While still possessing the largest GDP at about $25.4 trillion in 2022, its economic dominance is increasingly challenged.

   • The U.S. is no longer the top trading power; in 2022, 144 countries traded more with China than with the U.S., and only about 60 nations considered the U.S. their main trade partner.

   • Since 2001, China's economy has rapidly caught up, shrinking the U.S. lead from 4.6 times to 1.3 times. However, since 2008, the U.S. has widened its economic gap with the European Union by more than 50%.

   • The U.S. dollar constitutes approximately 59% of global reserves.

   • The U.S. is the world's leading producer of oil and natural gas, largely due to the shale revolution.

   • Other economic strengths include a strong labor market and the global reach of American multinational corporations.

6. Law

   • The extraterritorial reach of U.S. law allows foreign companies to be penalized for violating U.S. sanctions, even if they are not formally bound by U.S. law. These are known as secondary sanctions.

   • For instance, in 2014, BNP Paribas was fined nearly $9 billion by U.S. authorities for bypassing American embargoes on Cuba, Iran, Libya, and Sudan, asserting jurisdiction because transactions were conducted in U.S. dollars.

   • This extraterritorial power allows the U.S. to exert significant control over global trade due to its central economic role.

B. A Power Weakened by Internal Divisions

The U.S. faces significant internal divisions that impact its global standing.

• Societal Polarization: Deep divides exist between Democrats and Republicans, urban and rural voters, coastal elites and the heartland, and over issues of minority rights versus working-class white populations.

• Culture Wars: Contentious debates on gun control, voting rights, immigration, race relations, climate change, education, and abortion further exacerbate societal rifts.

• Loss of Trust: Events like the January 6th, 2021, assault on the Capitol highlight political instability. A significant portion of Americans, particularly Republicans, believe the 2020 election was stolen, indicating a crisis of legitimacy.

• Underlying Factors:

  • Demographic shifts.

  • Economic globalization leading to extreme inequality, public health crises (e.g., opioid addiction), and even a decline in life expectancy.

  • Cultural transformations.

  • Changes in the media landscape, particularly since the 1987 end of the Fairness Doctrine, contribute to partisan narratives.

  • Political strategies often exploit economic and cultural grievances, as exemplified by Donald Trump's rhetoric appealing to white, working- and middle-class voters who feel marginalized by globalization and alienated from "disconnected" coastal elites.

II. What Strategy for the United States? Evolutions and Hesitations in U.S. Foreign Policy

Following setbacks in the 2000s and facing the rise of new powers, especially China, the U.S. has grappled with defining its global role. This has led to shifts and hesitations in its foreign policy under presidents like Barack Obama (2009–2017), Donald Trump (2017–2021), and Joe Biden (2021–2025).

A. A War-Weary America: Rethinking the Exercise of Power

The U.S. has experienced a significant shift away from the assertive hard power approach that characterized interventions in Afghanistan (2001) and Iraq (2003).

• Neoconservative Influence: These interventions reflected the neoconservative doctrine, which advocated for the U.S. to actively promote democracy worldwide, even through military force.

• War Fatigue: A widespread "war fatigue" and opposition to "endless wars" emerged, influencing policies across administrations from Obama to Trump.

• "Smart Power" Approach: The concept of "smart power" emerged, advocating for a balanced and effective combination of hard and soft power.

• Strategic Restraint: This approach manifested in strategies like "leading from behind" (e.g., the Libyan crisis) and "Don't do stupid stuff," emphasizing strategic restraint.

• Evolving Hard Power: While scaling back costly military interventions, the U.S. did not abandon hard power entirely. It adopted a "light footprint" approach, utilizing special forces, drones, and automated intelligence systems. Hard power also extended beyond military means, incorporating tools like law and financial sanctions.

• Trump's Skepticism: Donald Trump repeatedly expressed skepticism about expensive military interventions, although this stance sometimes conflicted with actions or rhetoric, leading to disappointment among some of his base.

B. The "Pivot to Asia": Rebalancing American Power

Announced in November 2011, the "Pivot to Asia" represented a major geopolitical reorientation aimed at countering China's rise and strengthening U.S. economic presence in the region.

• Consistent Logic, Varying Approaches: Despite different labels like "pivot," "priority strategic theater," or "strategic rebalancing," the underlying goal remained consistent across administrations.

• Obama's Strategy: Under Obama, the focus was on diplomacy, economic integration, and military presence.

• Trump's Unilateralism: Trump pursued a more unilateral and anti-Chinese approach.

• Biden's Restoration: Biden has attempted to repair relationships and restore coordination with allies.

• Reversing Disengagement: This pivot sought to reverse the U.S. disengagement from Asia that followed 1991.

• Tools for Rebalancing:

  • Alliances and Military Presence: The U.S. has strengthened its network of alliances and military partnerships, increasing troop presence in Japan, enhancing defense agreements with the Philippines, providing arms and military support to Taiwan, forming AUKUS in 2021, and establishing new bases in Pacific islands.

  • Economic Efforts: Economic results have been mixed due to policy inconsistencies. The failure of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was followed by the more modest Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) since 2022.

• Challenges:

  • Deteriorated relations with China, despite deep economic interdependence.

  • Global crises (e.g., war in Ukraine, Middle East) divert U.S. attention from the Indo-Pacific.

  • Allies express doubts about U.S. commitment (e.g., defending Taiwan).

  • Allies and partners maintain cautious approaches towards China due to its economic importance.

  • There is a constant risk of escalation in the region.

C. Multilateralism, Nationalism, and Relations with Allies: The Trump Break

Donald Trump's presidency marked a significant departure from established U.S. foreign policy characterized by multilateralism.

• "America First": A nationalist stance, epitomized by the "America First" banner.

• Mercantilist Approach: Prioritizing American commercial interests, aiming to reshape trade to favor U.S. exports and minimize imports.

• Aggressive Rhetoric Towards Allies: Traditional allies were accused of "free-riding" or "cheating" the U.S., particularly within NATO and regarding trade agreements like NAFTA (which was renegotiated into USMCA).

• Abandoned Moral Framework: The traditional U.S. emphasis on defending and promoting democracy globally was largely abandoned.

Key Takeaways

• The U.S. faces challenges to its global leadership from rising powers, particularly China, and from internal divisions.

• U.S. power is multifaceted, encompassing diplomacy, information, military, economic, intelligence, and legal tools.

• Internal divisions, fueled by socio-political polarization and economic disparities, weaken U.S. influence abroad.

• U.S. foreign policy has shifted from a hard power-dominant approach post-9/11 to a more restrained "smart power" or "light footprint" strategy.

• The "Pivot to Asia" aims to rebalance U.S. power towards the Indo-Pacific to counter China, with mixed economic results and ongoing geopolitical challenges.

• The Trump administration represented a significant break from traditional U.S. foreign policy, embracing nationalism and questioning multilateral alliances.