The World (Dis)order and Power in Today's Geopolitics

This note explores the evolution of multilateralism since 1945, analyzing its historical context, current challenges, and the shifting dynamics of global power.

Introduction: Global Disorder and "Interregnum"

The period following the Cold War saw the emergence of a unipolar world dominated by the United States, often described as a "hyperpower". However, the current global landscape is characterized by uncertainty and disarray, prompting discussions about an "interregnum".

The World After the Cold War: Unipolar World and US "Hyperpower"

• From a bipolar to a unipolar world: The United States emerged as the sole global superpower.

  • H. Védrine coined the term "hyperpower" to describe the US influence.

  • Madeleine Albright referred to the US as the "indispensable nation".

• US economic and military dominance (1993-2001):

  • 25% of global GDP.

  • 50% of global military expenditure.

  • A vast network of over 800 military bases worldwide.

• Military operations during this period:

  • Gulf War (1991), with a UN mandate.

  • Operation Restore Hope in Somalia (1992-1993).

  • Operations in Bosnia (1994) and Serbia (1999) with NATO.

• US as a peacemaker:

  • Oslo Accords (1993).

  • Dayton Accords (1995).

The Current World (Dis)order: An Uncertain, Unreadable "Interregnum"?

• Rebalancing of power hierarchies: The relative strength of the United States has diminished, and new powers have risen.

• Global disorder and instability: Characterized by terms such as "apolar," "multipolar," or "new bipolar order."

• The concept of "interregnum" (Antonio Gramsci):

  "the crisis consists precisely in the fact that the old is dying and the new cannot be born; in this interregnum a great variety of morbid symptoms appear."

I. The Origins of Contemporary Multilateralism (1945-2000s)

Multilateralism, as we understand it today, has roots extending back centuries but saw its most significant development in the post-WWII era.

A. The Foundational Moment of the End of the Second World War

The devastation of WWII spurred an international effort to create institutions designed to prevent future conflicts and foster cooperation.

• Historical precursors to international cooperation:

  • Peace of Westphalia (1648).

  • Progress in international law during the 19th century:

    • Declaration on maritime law (1856).

    • First Geneva Convention on the treatment of wounded soldiers (1864).

    • Hague Conferences (1899, 1907) codifying "laws and customs of war".

  • Early international organizations:

    • International Telegraph Union (1865).

    • Universal Postal Union (1874).

  • League of Nations in the interwar period.

• Post-WWII multilateralism:

  • United Nations Charter (June 1945).

  • Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948).

  • Tension between the ideal of multilateralism and the preeminence of certain powers (e.g., the right of veto for permanent members of the UN Security Council).

  • Driven by the United States, which fully engaged in the UN.

• The American conviction: The belief that democracy, peace, and prosperity through markets and free trade formed a "virtuous circle".

• Bretton Woods Institutions (1944):

  • Established a monetary system centered on the US dollar.

  • International Monetary Fund (IMF).

  • International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (World Bank).

• General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT, 1947).

B. Multilateralism in the Context of the Cold War

The Cold War significantly impacted the functionality and scope of multilateral institutions.

• UN Security Council paralysis:

  • Antagonism between superpowers led to frequent use of the veto (210 times from 1947 to early 1990s).

• Decolonization and transformation of the UN:

  • The 1950s-1970s saw many new nations join, leading to tension between universal principles and Western perspectives.

  • The General Assembly became an "echo chamber" for the claims of the "Third World" (e.g., Group of 77, 1964).

• A modest record in collective security:

  • Despite initial intentions, direct conflict resolution was limited due to superpower rivalry.

• The work of UN Specialized Agencies:

  • Played a crucial role in addressing global challenges beyond political conflicts.

  • Examples: Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Health Organization (WHO), United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), International Labour Organization (ILO), United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

  • UNESCO activities:

    • Foundation in 1945.

    • International campaign to save ancient temples of Nubia (1960s).

    • Convention concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage (1972).

    • US withdrawal from UNESCO in 1984, highlighting political tensions.

• Progress in normative multilateralism (creation of international norms and treaties):

  • Antarctic Treaty (1959).

  • Treaty Banning Nuclear Weapon Tests (1963).

  • Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT, 1968).

  • Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (1972).

  • Vienna Conventions on Diplomatic Relations (1961) and Consular Relations (1963).

• Challenges to the Bretton Woods System:

  • President Nixon ended the dollar's convertibility into gold in 1971, dismantling the fixed exchange rate system established at Bretton Woods.

C. A Brief Apex at the End of the Cold War?

The period immediately following the Cold War offered a window of opportunity for enhanced multilateral cooperation.

• Achievements and positive developments:

  • Gulf War (1991) with UN mandate.

  • UN Peacekeeping Forces awarded the Nobel Peace Prize (1988).

  • Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro (1992).

  • Ottawa Treaty banning anti-personnel mines (1997).

  • Rome Statute establishing the International Criminal Court (ICC, 1998).

  • World Trade Organization (WTO, 1995), replacing GATT.

• Limitations and setbacks:

  • WTO showed "disappointing early results."

  • Key nations like the US and China did not participate in the Kyoto Protocol (1997) or the ICC (1998).

  • Tragedies of the 1990s: Rwandan genocide (1994), Srebrenica (1995) – highlighting failures in conflict prevention.

  • NATO intervention in Kosovo (1999) without explicit UN Security Council authorization.

  • Re-election of Boutros Boutros-Ghali as UN Secretary-General was blocked by the US.

II. Multilateralism in "Crisis" (from 2003)

Since the early 2000s, multilateralism has faced significant challenges, leading many to question its efficacy and future.

A. Multilateralism Incapable of Meeting 21st-Century Challenges?

The ability of existing multilateral frameworks to address contemporary global issues is under intense scrutiny.

• Inadequate record in conflict resolution and crisis prevention:

  • The Security Council is often paralyzed by the veto power of its permanent members.

  • The very great powers on the Council have sometimes disregarded international law.

  • The principle of "responsibility to protect" (R2P) was discredited by the intervention in Libya (2011).

• Stalled international trade negotiations:

  • WTO negotiations have been stalled since the collapse of the Doha Round (2001-2013).

  • The WTO's dispute settlement mechanism is currently paralyzed.

• Rise of regional and plurilateral agreements:

  These agreements indicate a shift away from universal trade frameworks.

  • Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (2020).

  • Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (2019).

• Environmental cooperation:

  • Paris Agreement (2015), though facing challenges in implementation.

• Migration governance:

  • Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration (2018).

B. Who is Responsible for the Crisis? The UN, or the Great Powers that Dominate it?

The crisis of multilateralism is often attributed to both the limitations of the UN system and the actions of powerful states.

• Role of hegemonic powers: The success of multilateralism depends largely on the goodwill of powerful nations.

• The United States and multilateralism:

  • The hegemonic power that initiated and built major post-war institutions has become an actor undermining them.

  • Donald Trump's unilateralism is a prominent symbol of US rejection of multilateralism (e.g., frontal attack on the UN in 2025).

  • There's a longer history of a paradoxical and ambivalent US relationship with multilateralism.

• UN in crisis of legitimacy and reform:

  • The Security Council's structure reflects a geopolitical reality of 1945, not current power dynamics.

  • Reform efforts are recurring but have consistently failed due to permanent members' unwillingness to cede privileges or agree on changes.

  • Recent change: When a P5 member uses its veto, it must explain its decision to the General Assembly.

  • The UN is also weakened by inadequate financial resources.

• Contributions to UN Peacekeeping Operations (PKO):

  PKOs are a significant aspect of UN activities, though debates exist about their effectiveness.

  Personnel en uniforme au 30 septembre 2020 (en milliers)
  Country	Personnel
  Bangladesh	6.74
  Rwanda	6.40
  Ethiopia	6.18
  Nepal	5.64
  India	5.43
  Pakistan	4.49
  Egypt	3.13
  Indonesia	2.86
  China	2.56
  Ghana	2.48

  Participation au budget de janv. 2019 à déc. 2021 (en %)
  Country	Contribution
  United States	27.9
  China	15.2
  Japan	8.6
  Germany	6.1
  United Kingdom	5.8
  France	5.6
  Italy	3.3
  Russia	3.0
  Canada	2.7
  South Korea	2.3

C. Ongoing Transformations and Prospects for Renewing Multilateralism

Despite the challenges, multilateralism is evolving, with new actors, forms, and approaches emerging.

• 1. New actors and diminished state power:

  • Integration of non-state actors (NGOs, civil society, corporations) into global governance.

  • The launch of the United Nations Global Compact by Kofi Annan in 2000 marked a turning point for corporate involvement.

    I propose that you, the business leaders... and we, the United Nations, initiate a global compact of shared values and principles, which will give a human face to the global market.

    – Kofi Annan, 1938–2018

• 2. The rise of neo-multilateralism or new forms of multilateralism:

  • Global agreements with universal scope but recognizing the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities".

  • The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) established a flexible legal framework with its Conference of the Parties (COP).

  • Mobilization of experts, such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

  • Examples: Paris Agreement (2015), 2023 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

• 3. The emergence of minilateralism and dynamic regional multilateral organizations:

  • Minilateralism: Refers to bringing together a limited, appropriate number of countries to address specific problems in particular fields or regions. It favors informal, non-binding, tailor-made, or ad hoc coalitions.

  • Examples of minilateralism:

    • Club diplomacy: G7, G20.

    • P5+1 International Group (regarding Iran's nuclear program).

    • BRICS+.

Key Takeaways

• Multilateralism has evolved from its post-WWII origins, facing a significant "interregnum" characterized by shifting power dynamics and global disorder.

• The US, once a "hyperpower" and key architect of multilateralism, now often approaches it ambivalently.

• The UN's effectiveness is hampered by Security Council paralysis and structural issues, though its specialized agencies continue vital work.

• New forms of cooperation, including "neo-multilateralism" that involves non-state actors and "minilateralism" focused on smaller, more agile groups, are emerging as responses to the crisis of traditional multilateralism.

• The future of multilateralism rests on balancing universal aspirations with the national interests of powerful states and adapting to complex 21st-century challenges.