L5

This note explores the evolving geopolitical landscape defined by the increasing assertiveness of China and Russia, their historical trajectories, and their "friendship without limits." Both nations share a critical view of the West and advocate for a new world order, positioning themselves as revisionist powers.

I. Two Historical Trajectories, the Same Will to Assert its Power

China and Russia, despite their distinct historical paths, share a common ambition to assert their power on the global stage. This section outlines their individual developments and their differing assets in this pursuit.

1) China: From Economic Reforms to the Assertion of its Power

China's modern rise began with economic reforms and a pragmatic approach, evolving into open ambition for global leadership.

• Economic Reforms and Political Control:

  • 1978/79: Economic reforms initiated, opening China to the global economy.

  • 1989 (Tiananmen Square): Maintenance of a "centralized democracy" under the Chinese Communist Party despite repression.

  • Deng Xiaoping's Approach: Policy of "Hide your strength and bide your time" and "Never seek leadership," prioritizing economic development.

  • Followed by Jiang Zemin (1989-2002) and Hu Jintao (2002-2012).

  • 2001: China's accession to the World Trade Organization, a key date in its economic integration.

• Xi Jinping's "New Era" (Since 2012):

  • Break from the cautious approach of previous leaders.

  • 2017 (19th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party): Announcement of a "new era" for China.

  • Increased distrust towards the West, viewing itself as "encircled" by the United States.

  • Stronger internationalist dimension, aiming to be a reference point for the non-Western world.

2) Russia: From the Collapse of the USSR to the Rebuilding of Power

Russia's trajectory involves recovering from the Soviet collapse to re-establish itself as a major power with an increasingly anti-Western stance.

• Post-Soviet Collapse (1991):

  • USSR disintegrated into 15 independent republics.

  • The 1990s were marked by "shock therapy" economics and secessionist movements, preventing Russia from pursuing a significant power policy.

• Vladimir Putin's Era (Since 1999):

  • Transition towards an authoritarian regime.

  • 2000s: Russian economy recovered, enabling a more ambitious foreign policy.

  • Goal: Restore Russia's status as a great power.

  • Since 2007: Openly anti-Western stance, symbolized by Putin's Munich speech.

3) China and Russia: Two States with Different Assets in Their Quest for Power

While both aim for greater global influence, China and Russia possess distinct strengths that shape their strategies.

Military Power

• Russia:

  • Historical military power engaged in high-intensity war.

  • Largest nuclear arsenal globally.

  • Over one million active soldiers.

  • Third-largest arms exporter and third-largest defense budget.

  • Ranked as a major military power by the Global Firepower Index.

• China:

  • Rapidly modernizing army.

  • Second-largest military budget globally since 2012.

  • Nuclear power since 1964.

  • Massive modernization of the People's Liberation Army since the 1990s.

  • Defense industry capable of producing advanced weapons in all categories.

Diplomatic Influence

• China:

  • First diplomatic network according to the Global Diplomacy Index, with 274 diplomatic posts.

  • Permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power.

  • Leading role in multilateral forums (BRICS+, SCO).

• Russia:

  • Ranked sixth in diplomatic network.

  • Permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power.

  • Leading role in multilateral forums (BRICS+, SCO).

Economic Power (GDP in current US$, 2024 estimates)

Source: World Bank

Comparative Indicators (2023-2024 data)

II. Centrality of Regional Issues and New Global Ambitions

Both China and Russia started with regional concerns but have expanded their ambitions to become global powers, intertwining their regional strategies with broader international goals.

1) From the Continent to the Sea: The Transformation of China's Geopolitics in the 21st Century

China's geopolitical focus has shifted from predominantly continental issues to a strong emphasis on maritime power and global influence.

• Historical Continental Focus:

  • Primary ambitions centered on regional environment and continental issues.

  • Key issues: Relations with the USSR, settlement of numerous border disputes (e.g., with Myanmar, India, Vietnam), and the Korean question.

• Shift Towards Maritime Power:

  • Significant investment in the development and modernization of its navy.

  • Economic drivers: Linked to China's export-oriented economic model.

  • Geopolitical considerations:

    • Indo-Pacific as the main theater of US-China rivalry, with Beijing perceiving encirclement.

    • Most sensitive territorial disputes are now maritime (e.g., Taiwan, East China Sea with Japan over Senkaku Islands, South China Sea).

• Global Reach through Initiatives:

  • Belt and Road Initiative (2013): Project of "new silk roads" to expand economic and geopolitical influence.

2) The Post-Soviet Space: At the Heart of Russia's Power Politics and Its Confrontation with the West

For Russia, controlling the post-Soviet space remains a core strategic objective, driving its confrontational stance with the West.

• Post-Soviet Control as Primary Objective:

  • 1991: Formation of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to maintain Russian influence.

  • NATO and EU expansion, along with "color revolutions" (e.g., Georgia 2003, Ukraine 2004), are viewed as Western interference in Russia's sphere of influence.

• Instruments of Domination:

  • Military interventions: Georgia (2008), Crimea (2014), Ukraine (2022).

  • Military partnerships and foreign deployments.

  • Regional organizations: Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO, 2002), Eurasian Economic Union (2015).

  • Soft Power: Russkiy Mir Foundation, Russia Today.

  • Economic leverage: Energy supply.

3) (Re)Becoming Global Powers: China and Russia Beyond their Regional Environment

Both nations extend their influence globally, using economic, military, and diplomatic tools to challenge Western dominance.

• China's Global Expansion:

  • International Investor: $2.58 trillion US dollars in overseas assets by 2020 via direct investments and contract-based projects (e.g., Eximbank, China Development Bank loans).</p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Protection of Citizens Overseas:</strong> Over five million Chinese nationals living abroad, requiring protective measures (e.g., Libyan crisis evacuation).</p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Multilateral Engagement:</strong></p><ul class="tight" data-tight="true"><li><p style="text-align: left;">Increased activity in the UN system, including peacekeeping missions (2,500 soldiers in 2019) and crucial role in environmental governance.</p></li><li><p style="text-align: left;">Criticizes Western dominance and develops alternative frameworks (BRICS+, Shanghai Cooperation Organization).</p></li></ul></li><li><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>African Engagement:</strong></p><ul class="tight" data-tight="true"><li><p style="text-align: left;">Leading national trading partner for Africa ($20 billion in 2000 to $200 billion in 2018).

  • Economic assistance sometimes creates new forms of dependency.

  • Growing security dimension: military cooperation, second-largest arms supplier to Sub-Saharan Africa, naval presence in Gulf of Aden, first overseas military base in Djibouti.

III. Sino-Russian Relations: A "Friendship Without Limits" and the Reversal of a Historical Power Balance

The relationship between China and Russia has evolved from complex historical dynamics to a strategic partnership characterized by shared grievances against the West and an increasingly asymmetric power balance.

1) China-Russia Relations in the 20th Century: Uneasy Allies and Rival Brothers

Historical ties were marked by alliances born out of China's weakness and periods of tension.

• Historical Alliance Treaties:

  • Three treaties signed, primarily driven by China's need for security guarantees or assistance.

  • 1896: Alliance against Japanese attack.

  • August 1945: Alliance between USSR and the Nationalist government (Kuomintang).

  • February 1950: Alliance between USSR and the People's Republic of China.

• Periods of Strain:

  • 1960: Khrushchev recalled Soviet experts from China, signaling a rift.

• Reconciliation:

  • 1989: Formal reconciliation between the two nations.

2) A “Friendship Without Limits” – But an Asymmetric Relationship

The current "friendship without limits" is a strategic partnership rather than a formal alliance, marked by shared anti-Western sentiment but also significant power asymmetry in China's favor.

• Partnership, Not Formal Alliance:

  • Often described as a "friendship or partnership rather than alliance."

  • Ukraine War's Impact: Highlighted and strengthened the relationship through increased trade, technology transfers, and China's diplomatic support for Russia (abstention in UN votes).

• Shared Worldviews and Adversaries:

  • Critical vision of the Western-led world order.

  • Common adversary: The United States.

  • Both advocate for a multipolar world and pursue revisionist agendas.

• Regional Cooperation:

  • Active participation in organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

• Military Cooperation:

  • Valuable for China's military modernization: 81% of China's foreign military acquisitions between 2017 and 2021 came from Russia.

• Asymmetric Economic Relationship (2023):

  • Russia's dependence on China: Approximately 38% of Russia's imports came from China, and 31% of its exports went to China.

  • China's limited dependence on Russia: Russia accounted for only 5.1% of China's imports and 3.3% of its exports.

Key Takeaways

• China and Russia are united by a common anti-Western sentiment and a desire for a multipolar world order.

• China's geopolitical focus has broadened from continental to maritime ambitions, backed by significant economic and military modernization.

• Russia prioritizes control over the post-Soviet space, viewing NATO and EU expansion as Western interference.

• Both nations are expanding their global reach through economic investments, military presence, and multilateral cooperation outside Western-dominated institutions.

• The "friendship without limits" is a strategic partnership, albeit one with a growing asymmetry where China holds increasing economic and geopolitical leverage over Russia.